Published July 10, 2020
With the first half of the year in the record books, we can reflect back. The S&P began the year at 3,231 and climbed to 3,386 on Feb. 19, when it took a sharp drop ending at 2,237 on March 23. Then the market began a seemingly V-shaped recovery and bounced up to the current level of 3,100 on June 30.
The market was aided by very supportive actions from the government. The Federal Reserve announced that it would do whatever it takes to keep the economy strong. The administration offered strong fiscal support through stimulus packages. The virus appeared to take a breather, which gave the market optimism.
As the stimulus packages began to wear out and the virus began to resurge, only the Federal Reserve was able to continue its support for the market. The Fed has almost unlimited ability to support the market through monetary policy, including even buying assets.
The administration has an appetite for disbursing money through various methods, but that could have a practical and political limit. The virus seems to be in charge. Hope for a vaccine stimulates the market, but fears of a new virus and resurgence […]
Published June 5, 2020
Financial results for the first quarter of 2020 have been reported by most members of the S&P 500, showing corporate earnings down 11.2 percent year on year, even though revenues were up 1.9 percent. Due to the COVID-19 virus, S&P earnings for the full year 2020 are expected to be down 23 percent or more. Growth is expected to resume next year, largely because of the easy comparisons with this year.
In the meantime, unemployment remains very high and rising. The Labor Department’s monthly employment report for April shows the jobless rate soared to 14.7 percent – the highest level since the Great Depression. The U.S. has lost 20.5 million jobs amid the coronavirus pandemic. Almost all the job growth achieved during the 11-year recovery from the Great Recession has now been lost in one month.
On June 5 (after this column was written), the Labor Department was to have released May’s employment report, and expectations were for 9 million additional people to have lost their jobs. This would increase the unemployment rate to slightly more than 20 percent. The Labor Department says the real unemployment rate is likely […]
Published May 8, 2020
Then, just like that, it was over. The bull market did not end because of economic issues. This bull market ended because of a virus, and the growing realization of its impact on the global economy. The end of the market run was sudden and ferocious. Veteran investors were shocked and surprised. Warren Buffett observed that in all his years of investing, he had never seen anything like it.
Since the market is usually a forecaster of the economy, it appeared that the market was forecasting an event as big as the Great Depression, with unemployment at levels unseen at any time previously. Liz Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab, said it was the Great Depression, the crash of 1987 and the 9-11 attacks all rolled into one.
Then on March 23, the U.S. equity market struck its low point for the year thus far. Since March 23, the market has been on a tear. First dismissed as […]
Published April 10, 2020
From its all-time high on Feb. 12, the S&P 500 hit a bottom of 2,237 on March 23. But will it still go lower this year? After the longest bull market in stock market history, the coronavirus dealt a body blow to the market. The market drop was the most precipitous in history. History tells us that the market will recover, but over what time period? Will it be a V-shaped or U-shaped or L-shaped recovery?
Since 1929, the S&P has suffered 14 bear markets, defined as peak-to-trough losses of 20 percent or more. That being said, bear markets result in declines of 39 percent on average, and last about 19 months. If this one feels particularly bad, it’s because it is. We’ve had a decline almost on a par with a typical full bear market cycle in just about three weeks.
Over the past 25 years, there have been seven virus-related market episodes. While there were market dislocations during these episodes, none of the infections were as contagious as the current coronavirus. While the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa was potentially more problematic, it was contained quite quickly […]
Published March 6, 2020
This month I have received more than the usual amount of correspondence asking where my column is. It is flattering to know that people care, but pity the poor columnist in a market of volatility and government by tweet. Sometimes circumstances change so rapidly, I can’t keep up with the changes. But should you care about the volatility anyway?
Investors are people, and people are often impatient. No one likes to wait in line or wait longer than necessary for something – especially today, when so much is just a click or two away.
This impatience also manifests itself in the financial markets. When stocks slip, for example, some investors grow uneasy. Their impulse is to sell, get out, and perhaps get back in later. If they give in to that impulse, they may pay a steep price.
Across 30 years through Dec. 31, 2018, the Standard & Poor’s 500 posted an average annual return of 10 percent. During the same period, the average mutual fund stock investor realized a yearly return of just 4.1 percent. Why the difference? It could partly stem from impatience.
It’s important to remember that past performance […]
Published February 7, 2020
“It’s very hard to say what is affecting financial markets with any precision or confidence.” – Jerome Powell, U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman.
Longtime readers of this column will recall that I am fond of quoting Will Rogers, who had rare sagacity. He once said “it is very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Now, our Federal Reserve chairman agrees with him.
As we started the year, rosy optimism prevailed. The equity markets were up. Strength in the markets begat more strength, and it looked like we were off to a good start for the year. A good start to the year usually means a good year; optimism prevailed. The Federal Reserve met and pronounced the economy solid. The Fed declined to move rates, because a cut wasn’t needed, and an increase was not warranted. President Trump did not agree: The Fed should get smart and cut rates, he opined, arguing that high interest rates were putting the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage. (Interest rates are at historically low levels.) The president yearned for the negative interest rates of Europe, but they weren’t forthcoming.
Unemployment remained low. Consumer confidence […]