Gene Marcial’s Stock Picks April 22, 2009

Marcial: Finding Comfort in Clothier Warnaco Despite a recent runup, shares of the maker of popular Calvin Klein, Speedo, and intimate apparel lines remain promising

By Gene Marcial

Most investors are torn between pursuing a defensive strategy in these recessionary times and scouting for beaten-down shares of growth companies, many of which stumble during economic downturns.

To bridge the gap, long-term growth investor William Rutherford, president of Rutherford Investment Management, invests in companies that have consistent records of growth and, at the same time, possess defensive characteristics.

One company that tops Rutherford’s list: Warnaco (WRC), a leading global apparel maker, whose popular brands include Calvin Klein, Speedo, and Chaps. What distinguishes Warnaco from many other clothing companies is that it specializes in intimate apparel for both men and women. It also manufactures sportswear, such as jeans, and Speedo swimwear.

Demand for intimate apparel has been hot, helping propel Warnaco’s stock higher, to 27 a share on Apr. 21, from a 52-week closing low of 12.22 on Nov. 21. Despite the stock’s rise, it is well below its 52-week high of 53.89 reached on Aug. 11, 2008.

how much higher?

Regardless of the economic cycle, demand for intimate apparel remains strong, […]

article online at: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2009/pi20090420_886105.htm

April 21, 2009, 12:01AM EST

Earnings: Good News or Bad News? If trends continue, first-quarter profits might beat expectations?barely?for the first time in several quarters

By Ben Steverman

Amid a deepening recession and credit crisis, investors have gotten used to companies’ earnings going from bad to worse. Now, based on the first of a wave of first-quarter results, earnings might be going from worse back to just bad.

But that’s small comfort. While the first two weeks of the current earnings season, which kicked off with Alcoa’s ( AA) release on Apr. 7, do not confirm the pessimists’ worst fears, the tidings are still pretty grim. Based on analyst predictions and the first 58 companies to report in the first quarter, Standard & Poor’s estimates that the 500 in the broad S&P 500 should see operating earnings drop 26% from a year ago.

Reflecting the serious concerns embedded in such a drop in profits, stocks sold off on Apr. 20. The S&P 500 fell 3.5% despite from financial giant Bank of America ( BAC). (Of course, a gloomy forecast on BofA’s future loan losses might have had something to do with the market’s malaise.)

But, after […]

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2009/pi20090410_940389.htm

Investing April 13, 2009, 12:01AM EST Stocks: Is the Rally on Sound Footing? Almost everyone has been surprised by the stock market’s month-long run. But keeping the momentum going could be tricky By Ben Steverman

Recession? Financial crisis? Never mind. The stock market just finished an extraordinary month, a big surprise for even the most optimistic observers.

Stocks, measured by the broad Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, hit a low for the current bear market on Mar. 9. A month later, by the close on Apr. 9, the S&P 500 was 26.6% higher.

If this March-April advance were a calendar month, it would be the best month for the S&P 500 since 1933.

“The rally has been surprising in its length and how far it’s come,” says William Rutherford, president of Rutherford Investment Management. Stock gains are boosting confidence, not just among investors but in the U.S. economy as a whole, he says.

“There is a lot of upward momentum here,” says Richard Sparks of Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “A lot of buyers are stepping in.”

Notes of Cautious Optimism First-quarter earnings season, which began on Apr. 7, threatened to trip up the market rally. After all, amid a global recession and […]

Wall St closes higher in volatile trading By Kiran Stacey in New York Published: March 25 2009 12:56 | Last updated: March 25 2009 20:54 Financial stocks surged more than 8 per cent in the last hour of trade on Wednesday, leading the market into positive territory despite a reversal in afternoon trade.

The market opened strongly after several pieces of good economic data added to confidence given to investors overnight by President Barack Obama.

Mr Obama allayed fears that his administration was hostile to Wall Street when he said: “We cannot afford to demonise every investor or entrepreneur who seeks to make a profit.”

But Lawrence Creatura, portfolio manager at Federated Clover Capital Advisors, said the constant announcements coming from Washington could have a destabilising effect. “It is a like a traffic light which flashes on and off so quickly that nothing is actually able to get through,” he said.

The market rose despite some fears over unclear messages from Washington as sales of new homes climbed unexpectedly for the first time in seven months, rising 4.7 per cent off record lows in February.

There were other encouraging signs for the housing market, as the Mortgage Bankers Association said there had […]

Investing for the Long Uncertainty Ahead Don’t be fooled by last week’s rally. The outlook for when and how investors can start to rebuild their retirement savings is grim

By David Bogoslaw

March 16, 2009

Economists are characterizing the current financial crisis as everything from the Great Recession to possibly something on the scale of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Just how long will the pain and uncertainty last? Nobody knows. With the jobless rate expected to keep climbing, consumer spending, a key prop of the U.S. economy, may not rebound anytime soon. Meanwhile, Washington has yet to articulate a viable solution to the banking morass. That makes the odds for a recovery within the year or even the next two look worse with each passing day.

The implications for when and how investors can start to rebuild their retirement savings are equally grim. Let’s be honest. Investors probably don’t want to listen to anyone telling them to stay the course and stick with the classic asset allocation at this point, after a nearly 60% plunge in the major stock indexes from their October 2007 peaks.

Don’t be fooled by last week’s stock-market rally. Yes, it was the first time stocks ended higher […]

Recently I wrote that as the market was testing its November lows that we could expect a big battle and the outcome was important from a technical point of view. In fact, the market did break through its November lows, and has had five down days in a row. Technically this was important, but proving once again that the market does not know these technical indicators, the market bounced off its lows today rallying 150 points on the Dow. Volume was a modest 1.79 Billion shares. The market had traded higher most of the day paring its gains at the end. Gainers outnumbered losers 4:1. The catalyst was a stimulus package announced by China. It remains to be seen how important today is for the markets, but it is a good sign.