mitt romney Archives • Rutherford Investment

President Obama Wins Second Term

Published November 19, 2012
The market absorbed the news of President Obama’s re-election with a decidedly negative reaction. Both the Dow and the S&P fell more than 2 percent. Still, that was an improvement over 2008, when, on the day after Obama was elected, the Dow and the S&P both dropped more than 5 percent.

Both candidates spent lavishly in what was by far the most expensive race in U.S. history. Obama won a second term as president of the United States, joining a select group. Despite seeming to be disengaged from the campaign, and running on a mixed record with the electorate strongly divided, he won a resounding victory in the all-important Electoral College. The popular vote was closer.

Obama won the election by out-organizing the Republicans. His “ground game” brought the results he needed in turnout and delivered the toss-up states that he needed to win. He received 70 percent of the Hispanic vote, and strong support from women voters.

Mitt Romney suffered from an overlong campaign, with too many brutal primaries, a divided party, and positions that turned away Hispanics and women. Late in the campaign, he seemed dogged by missteps and changed positions.

Romney’s choice of a running mate, meant to appeal to the party’s right wing, brought little benefit. He could have added Sen. Marco Rubio from Florida, or Sen. Robert Portman, a popular Ohioan who regularly wins his elections with more than 70 percent of the vote. Both come from key states that Romney lost by narrow margins.

Democrats also fared well in both House and Senate races, picking up seats and strengthening Obama’s hand. The president, who believes in the […]

Central Bankers In The Spotlight

Published September 10, 2012
Since the overall market, as measured by Standard & Poor’s, is up over 13 percent for the year, over 10 percent since May lows and more than 2 percent in August alone, cautious optimism has emerged.

However, political risk hangs so heavily over markets globally, it is hard to be anything but worried. Furthermore, September is a notoriously difficult month for stocks. Expect more turbulence.

Globally, economies are slowing. Even Germany, which has been the bulwark of the European economy, has slowed as Europe sinks into a recession. In Asia, much uncertainty prevails as China, the key driver there, sees its economy slowing.

In the U.S., signals are mixed. Factory orders are reported stronger than expected. Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan index, also is surprisingly up.

Durable goods manufacturing is up 9.8 percent year over year, with durable goods sales and orders both up over 14 percent. Factory order backlogs are 14.4 percent. New housing starts are up 29 percent, and new housing building permits are up 29 percent year over year.

The big three automakers mark double-digit sales gains in August year over year. Productivity increases to 2.2 percent up from expected 1.9 percent year over year.

But other measures, such as the purchasing managers’ index and the construction index (which includes government construction), show declines in July and August. And a serious drought in the Midwest threatens farmers and farm-related industries.

With the mixed tone, one can be wary of the U.S. economy – especially factoring in the political risk. As the election nears, the outcome is still very much in doubt. At this juncture, President Obama is probably […]