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Market In Rally Mode In Third Quarter

William RutherfordPublished October 15, 2012
U.S. equity markets have staged a strong rally since hitting a low point on June 1. At that time investors feared a global recession, Europe was facing disaster and the general outlook was despondency.

The market closed at 1,278.04 on June 1. It has since risen 12.7 percent through the third quarter in a stealth rally. The market closed at 1,440.67 on Sept. 30. In September, usually the worst month for markets, the S&P rose 2.6 percent, the Nasdaq rose 1.6 percent and the Dow rose 2.75 percent.

At the conclusion of the quarter, the Dow had risen in 11 of the past 12 months, falling only in May. The last time this happened was in 1959. The Dow has had a remarkable one-year run in which it has gained about 2,500 points, or 23 percent.

It was not all smooth sailing, because most of the September gains came in the first two weeks. Durable goods orders in July-August fell 13.2 percent. At the end of September, consumer sentiment fell. The nonmanufacturing index rose to 55.1, but less than the 55.3 expected. Second-quarter GDP was revised lower to 1.3 percent growth.

However, jobless claims fell slightly and the economy in September added 162,000 jobs – well short of the 250,000 needed to absorb new workers let alone those out of work for extended periods. By the end of September, government statistics showed that the unemployment rate was below 8 percent, for the first time during the Obama administration.

The market got a lift from the announcement by the Fed of another round of quantitative easing. Both the anticipation of QE3 and the implementation […]

October 15th, 2012|Categories: Daily Journal of Commerce|Tags: , , , , , , , , |Comments Off on Market In Rally Mode In Third Quarter

Bill Rutherford Quoted In Business Week

Inside Wall Street: Bring on the Cranes and Road Graders by Gene Marcial

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_48/c4110insidewal446718.htm

The Dow Jones industrial average has plunged some 41% since its record close at 14,164 on Oct. 9, 2007—for a $1.7 trillion loss in market capitalization. And the broader Dow Jones Wilshire 5000-stock index has lost 46%, or $9.1 trillion. The huge sell-off is causing some strategists to figure that the market has already priced in a recession. Not only that, “it also has posted the worst performance entering a recession in over 60 years,” notes Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. While volatility is likely to continue, history suggests additional significant downside is unlikely. “The stage is set for an eventual recovery, led by the early cyclical sectors,” predicts Kleintop. It’s well-known, he adds, that powerful gains in the stock market come well before the end of a recession. […]

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