Positive Outlook For 2012 Economy

Published January 9, 2012
William Rutherford2011 started with hope that the economy would recover and unemployment would drop. After a roller coaster of a year, the broad market ended flat but with a positive outlook for 2012.

In the first quarter of 2011, the S&P finished up 5 percent; however, hopes were soon dashed. The “Arab Spring” may have brought optimism to North Africa, but it created uncertainty in world politics. A strong earthquake and tsunami in Japan interrupted the global supply chain. The ongoing debt crisis in Europe brought extreme volatility, apprehension and aversion to our markets.

Political problems in Washington led to a downgrade of our debt, but more importantly dashed American and foreign belief that our political leaders could fashion a way forward. Our own housing problems were not solved and prices continued to decline. In the third quarter, the S&P fell 14.33 percent.

The S&P 500 index finished the year almost exactly where it started: At the end of 2010, the index stood at 1,257.64; at the end of 2011, it was 1,257.60. The Dow Jones industrial average was much better, rising 5.5 percent on the year, outdistancing all other equity indices worldwide.

This seemingly flat performance of the broad market masked the extreme volatility of the year. On 35 trading days, the market closed with a gain or loss of 2 percent or more, making 2011 the most volatile on record for stocks.

Last year, $6.3 trillion in value was wiped out of markets. The euro ended the year as the worst performing currency. The United Kingdom’s FTSE index fell 5.5 percent, while European blue chips fell 11 percent. The Nikkei lost 17.3 […]