Published December 10, 2021

A new strain of the coronavirus and rising interest rates are taking their toll on the market.

With the S&P 500 up 23.2 percent year to date through Nov. 30, the U.S. equity market hit a speed bump. At the end of November, the market dropped sharply, as fears about a new strain of the virus appeared. Although the market recovered in ensuing days, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned accelerated credit tightening and increased rates, just to put an exclamation point on the drop.

A new strain of virus is especially worrisome to the market because COVID has already demonstrated the damage it can do to the economy. Rising interest rates are negative for the market as well. It is often said that the job of the Fed is to take the punch bowl away at the end of the party. It is also said that bull markets don’t die of old age (ours is 11 years old), but that they are murdered in their bed by the Fed.

The Fed has been talking more about interest rate increases. Board members have removed “transitory” as a modifier for inflation. Increased virus activity could mean fewer workers and more friction in the supply system, resulting in more inflation. The Fed has pledged to give ample advanced warning for any rate increase. Fed futures are showing summer as a likely date for increased interest rates, so any rate increase signals should come soon.

The CPI reflected more inflation in November. The job market is tightening. The Department of Labor reported a 4.2 percent unemployment rate in November. Full employment is usually considered to be between 4 percent […]

Published October 8, 2021

Stocks ended the most recent quarter with the worst month since March 2020 but recovered some lost ground on the first day of the new quarter.

Plagued by a host of issues, the S&P suffered its worst month in over 10 years.

The virus continues to confront the economy with no end in sight. As this virus continues to circulate and mutate, it will wear on the country. Other viruses will follow, as they always have. Exhortations from the central government will not be enough. The impact of this virus on the workplace and schools adds uncertainty to the economy, making Federal Reserve and budget decisions harder.

Interest rates are rising. That makes bonds more attractive to hold and diminishes enthusiasm for equities, causing a big sell-off in tech stocks.

Logistics become harder as the virus roils the workforce. Supply chains, in general, are disrupted due to factory closures and skilled labor shortages around the world. In particular, microchips, a necessary product of manufacturing today, are not being produced in quantities needed.

Inflation is haunting efforts to plan for the future. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell concedes that inflation will be with us longer than expected. Even dollar stores, which advertise everything for a dollar, are becoming dollar-and-a-quarter or dollar-and-fifty-cents stores, as the costs of goods rise.

Elizabeth Warren, a prominent Democratic senator, threatens to oppose Chairman Powell’s renomination. The financial markets do not like uncertainty, and Powell is a known quantity.

Congress has experienced stalemates over the deficit and debt ceiling increases and so is unable to plan for the budget, and budget goals cannot be met. Capital markets are very worried about a failure to increase the […]

Published September 10, 2021

It took the S&P 500, a proxy for the U.S. stock market, 354 trading days to double in value from its 2020 bottom. That was the fastest bull market double since WWII. Usually, it takes a bull market 1000 days to reach that milestone, according to CNBC analysis.

What powered the rally? Relief from the pandemic ignited the rally, as people ached to get out, liberate themselves from virus-related constraints (however misplaced) and spend money.

In 2020, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero and released $120 billion in emergency bond purchases in response to the fastest drop in S&P 500 history. The federal government also injected trillions of dollars in COVID relief spending into the economy. The response of the Fed and the legislative and executive branches of government primed the pump and overwhelmed the sagging economy.

The resulting massive earnings comeback further fueled the rise. Corporate profits jumped off the pandemic bottom, with S&P companies reporting a 53 percent year-over-year growth in earnings in the first quarter and poised to post a 98 percent surge in the second quarter, according to Refinitiv market data services.

The second quarter of 2021 was characterized by not only a large number of beats but also an impressive magnitude of surprises, said David Kostin, head of equity strategy for Goldman Sachs. For example, the economy added 943,000 jobs in July, above the consensus estimate, but failed to follow through in August.

Can the market continue to move in this direction? Now, the Fed is reevaluating its easy-money policies and weighing whether to raise interest rates. The market has not had a sizable pullback in about 10 months, […]

Published August 6, 2021

The U.S. stock market bursts out to new highs. Big tech profits surge. Recent news gives reason for optimism … or does it?

Much of the current growth in the economy is based on various stimulus programs sponsored by the federal government. More than five trillion dollars have been poured into the economy, with perhaps more to come; in dollar terms, this equates to about 25 percent of the annual U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). No wonder the economy is steaming.

The forecast was for the GDP to rise 8 percent in the most recent quarter, but it managed to increase only 5 percent. Is the economy slowing down? Well, it has been growing at the fastest pace since 1983. Consequently, the Fed says the drop in GDP growth rate is nothing to worry about. The Federal Reserve’s view is that the reopening of the economy after the virus surge has been stronger than expected and caused bottlenecks in distribution. When that sorts itself out, things will get back to normal. Is this just whistling through the graveyard?

Inflation appears to be surging, but again the Fed posits that this is transitory and linked to reopening and related supply and distribution issues.

China is restraining segments of its economy, which appears to be having negative ramifications for China and the U.S. It started with censorship of children’s textbooks and spread to its large technology companies and related U.S. IPOs. The Chinese government says “it is helping these companies to grow properly.” (This reminds us of the most feared words in the English language: “I’m from the government, and I am here to help you.”) The microchip […]

Published July 9, 2021

The U.S. stock market closed out the first half of 2021 at a record. The market showed gains through July 1 for five consecutive quarters, the longest streak since 2017. Business confidence has rebounded. While it seems that stocks can only go up, the outlook is increasingly hazy.

Fears of inflation cloud the outlook. The Federal Reserve chairman says the inflation threat is transitory, the result of distribution bottlenecks from the resurgence of the economy. Investors are not so sure if the rate of inflation is transitory or more permanent.

Savvy investors are looking for sustainable earnings. Who will be the long-term winners?

The trajectories of value and growth stocks have disconnected. In a bull market, both categories would be moving up. Value stocks have been outperforming growth, indicating that investors are uncertain about market direction.

While corporate earnings have been stellar, many investors believe that the economy’s rebound has been priced in and that stocks, trading at high multiples, are priced to perfection. Stocks are now in the second year of a bull market and can be expected to be choppy and make more muted gains.

Interest rates have risen, as might be expected in inflationary times. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury had been edging up, but then in July fell to its lowest level since February, and may go even lower. Still, rising interest rates could test the downward trend.
Rising rates would favor utilities and financials.

The U.S dollar is strengthening, which makes U.S. goods more expensive in international markets and results in difficulties for emerging market countries to repay their U.S. dollar-denominated debt.

The Federal Reserve now predicts 2021 U.S. economic growth of over […]

Published June 11, 2021

With the U.S. economy growing at 6.4 percent and current inflation estimated at 2.3 percent, investors are left to wonder what is happening.

Are we too late to invest? Are we too early? Is this an inflationary economy? Is it a Goldilocks economy (not too hot, not too cold)? Where should we invest? In precious metals? Bitcoin? What about bonds, stocks or commodities? Where does the COVID-19 virus fit into this scenario? These are all pertinent questions, for which there are no simple answers.

Similar to the mess that ensued from the financial crisis of 2008-09, the ramifications of the virus are omnipresent. First, inflation. Currently, the Federal Reserve estimates an inflation rate of 4.2 percent for calendar year 2021. This is no easy rate to peg. There is the rate at the store, or the gas pump, or the stated rate by the Fed, or the PCE inflator that the Fed prefers, but there is no one certain rate. Thus the published rate has many imperfections.

What is inflation and why does it matter? Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. It matters because businesses and consumers make purchasing decisions based on the perceived rate of inflation: The higher the current rate of inflation, the more likely a business or consumer is to buy, thus fueling more inflation.

Also, the Federal Reserve makes interest rate decisions based on the rate of inflation. If inflation is higher, the more likely the Fed is to raise interest rates. The Fed does this because it does not want inflation to “run away.” Conversely, if inflation is too low, the Fed might lower […]

Published May 7, 2021

As of the end of April, the stock market is up 11.8 percent year to date and up 46 percent over the trailing 12 months, as measured by the S&P 500 on a total return basis. One wonders when the robust market climb will falter.

The strong gains seem to provide evidence that the economy is poised for rapid recovery following last year’s pandemic-caused recession. Economists now expect a rebound because of strong consumer spending, trillions of dollars of government support, a surge in pent-up demand and increased mobility due to vaccinations.

The government reported last week that the overall economy, as measured by gross domestic product, rose at a robust rate of 6.4 percent in the January-to-March quarter. Some economists believe that growth will be strong in the coming quarter, perhaps even topping 10 percent.

U.S. consumer spending grew at the fastest pace in nine months, reflecting billions of dollars of government support payments. Incomes surged a record-breaking 21.1 percent in March, after falling 7 percent in February when frigid winter weather disrupted sales. The surge came amid billions of dollars in relief payments from a nearly $2 trillion federal government support package.

Despite the spending increases, consumers squirreled away a lot of their incomes – the savings rate grew to 27.6 percent in March, from an already elevated 13.9 percent in February. Excess household savings now totals about $2.3 trillion over what economists estimate would have been the case without the pandemic. Analysts believe that consumers will spend this stockpile in coming months as vaccinations get them to return to stores and take long-awaited vacations.

Inflation appeared to be tame, rising 1.8 percent annualized, excluding […]

Published April 9, 2021

2021 began with a slow start. Seemingly it was not a good time for investing. Between January 1 and March 1, the market dropped 1.01 percent as the pandemic stretched on. In this column, I warned against short-term investing and encouraged investors to pay attention to the Federal Reserve and government fiscal spending policies. The Fed said it wanted low interest rates and the central government wanted a large stimulus package. A few months later, the Fed has had its way with interest rates and the government has its stimulus package. As a stream of economic data and corporate profits turned positive, the U.S. equity market experienced strong gains for the first quarter of 2021.

With 99 percent of companies in the S&P index reporting positive earnings and a decline in new COVID-19 cases, the market powered upward. The passage of a $1.9 trillion fiscal relief bill and the Fed’s assurance of a near-zero interest rate policy, coupled with continuance of the monthly bond purchase program, spurred the market on.

Concern about inflation expressed by the Federal Reserve chairman caused investors to rotate out of economically sensitive stocks and out of high-growth companies. Still, equities closed near their highs as the quarter came to a close.

Fear began to rise that inflation would take hold if the market recovered too much. Ten-year Treasury yields rose sharply, with stocks falling just as sharply. Things began to look grim for the equity market, but just as quickly, the market reversed course and began to recover. The result has been a solid start to the year with the S&P broad market index up 9.19 percent through April 5. […]

Published March 5, 2021

Readers of this column will note that sometimes I refer to the market climbing a wall of worry.

In the past week the market hit that wall head-on.

The market had been moving up nicely, so what happened that led to it hitting a solid obstacle?

It was a case of good news and bad news. As often happens, investors were lured by the market into a sense of security by benign interest rates, a supportive Federal Reserve and a likely stimulus package for the economy. However, as the economy began to improve, interest rates began to rise. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for investors, traded as high as 1.6 percent – a move that was unnerving to investors. The 10-year yield moved more than half of a percentage point in two months, which is a rapid increase for the bond market.

Never mind that the unemployment rate in the country is still high or that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell promised to be supportive with low interest rates. Rates began to rise. A rise in interest rates would not be too bad, if it signaled an improving economy, but this rise was too fast. A rise in interest rates could also signal a rise in inflation. Indeed the 5-year TIPS/Treasury Breakeven Rate, an indicator of the markets’ expectations for inflation, rose to 2.38 percent in the last week of February – its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The rapid rise in interest rates was too much too soon. The market was spooked.

The interest rate on 10-year Treasurys, a popular benchmark for the bond markets, began to reach the dividend yield on S&P […]

Published February 5, 2021

A variation on the old investment strategy of short selling took on new dimensions as new traders took control. What brought about the market turmoil? Several factors were influential.

One factor was growth in the number of investors. In the past year, more new investors opened accounts – at least 10 million – faster than ever before.

Additionally, a shift to no-commission trading unlocked a wave of activity. With coronavirus-related lockdowns in place, people had little else to do. There were no major sports to bet on, so the stock market took its place. Trading activity started to surge. Recently, equity volume was triple the amount as on an average day in 2019.

Individual investors have always been small fish compared to the sharks of Wall Street: hedge funds. Before the pandemic, activity from individuals (“retail investors”) made up about 15 percent of daily trading volume. Now, it consistently makes up more than 20 percent. A single trader, from his basement office, led the change in this increase. Why?

Social media has given investors message boards and group consciousness, and that has evolved into market action. A single investor working on a social media platform called Reddit targeted a single stock with enthusiasm: GameStop. Convinced that GameStop offered opportunity and noting that some very big players had large short positions, he attacked with a relatively small commitment. One day he bought $53,000. By using options, he amplified his bet and made as much as $46,000 in a single day. Over the next year and a half, by using Reddit as his message board, “Roaring Kitty,” as he called himself, promoted the company and enthusiasm grew.

Encouraged by […]