Published February 7, 2020

“It’s very hard to say what is affecting financial markets with any precision or confidence.” – Jerome Powell, U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman.

Longtime readers of this column will recall that I am fond of quoting Will Rogers, who had rare sagacity. He once said “it is very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Now, our Federal Reserve chairman agrees with him.

As we started the year, rosy optimism prevailed. The equity markets were up. Strength in the markets begat more strength, and it looked like we were off to a good start for the year. A good start to the year usually means a good year; optimism prevailed. The Federal Reserve met and pronounced the economy solid. The Fed declined to move rates, because a cut wasn’t needed, and an increase was not warranted. President Trump did not agree: The Fed should get smart and cut rates, he opined, arguing that high interest rates were putting the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage. (Interest rates are at historically low levels.) The president yearned for the negative interest rates of Europe, but they weren’t forthcoming.

Unemployment remained low. Consumer confidence stayed strong, even as consumer stocks, as measured by their ETF, were weak. U.S. growth in domestic product was the slowest since 2016. The president blamed the Federal Reserve, but not the trade war.

As always, there was plenty to worry about. The markets were overextended, and a correction was due. Still, the equity market marched ahead; until it didn’t. News of a new virus spreading globally hit, and markets tumbled. Since it is hard to make predictions about the future, it is unknown at this […]

Published January 10, 2020

Much has been written about the classic financial mistakes that plague investors, family businesses, corporations and charities. Similar financial missteps also plague retirees. The beginning of a new decade is a good time to review these.

Calling them “mistakes” may be a bit harsh, because not all of them represent errors in judgment. Yet whether they result from ignorance or fate, we need to be aware of them as we plan for and enter retirement.

Leaving work too early

Adding years of earnings and savings can add significantly to the investment portfolio one will rely on in retirement. Also, since Social Security benefits rise about 8 percent for every year one delays receiving them, waiting a few years to apply for benefits can provide greater retirement income. Filing for monthly benefits before reaching Social Security’s Full Retirement Age (FRA) can mean comparatively smaller monthly payments. If possible, delay claiming Social Security until one must file for it, and see significantly more monthly benefits.

Underestimating medical bills

According to the latest estimate from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the average retiree will need at least $4,300 per year to pay for future health care costs. Medicare will not pay for everything. That $4,300 represents after-tax, out-of-pocket costs and accounts for dental, vision and long-term care.

Taking potential for longevity too lightly

Actuaries at the Social Security Administration project that around a third of today’s 65-year-olds will live to age 90, with about one in seven living 95 years or longer. The prospect of a retirement being 20-30 years or longer is not unreasonable, yet there is still a lingering cultural assumption that our retirements might duplicate the sometimes […]

Published December 6, 2019

In this column, you have often heard me refer to the market climbing a wall of worry.

Surely, at this time, the market has a lot to worry about.  Is that the reason the equity markets have climbed 20-30 percent year-to-date?

The slowing global economy, trade war with China, Brexit missteps, Hong Kong demonstrations and interest rates inverting have all been headline news and negatives for the U.S. economy and the stock market.

“Trade wars are good and easy to win,” opined President Trump, as he began the current dispute with China. With each passing month, we are told we are winning the trade dispute and that an agreement is at hand –  even inches away, according to the White House – yet the dispute continues and in some cases worsens.

If you can count the outcome of the demonstrations in Hong Kong as a sign of winning against China’s control, then we should be optimistic.  But political unrest in Hong Kong is threatening global stability.

Brexit also threatens disruption of the global economy, with the only solution offered being another general election in Britain; no consolation there.

The U.S. interest rate yield curve briefly inverted, so the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates again. Was that a solution or just another problem?  Wherever one looks there is worry, and yet the U.S. equity market appeared strong with the S&P up 25.3% from Jan. 1, 2019, through Dec. 1, 2019.  The Nasdaq was up 30.6% and the Dow Jones Industrials up 20.3% during the same time period.

The S&P added 3.4% for the month of November, while the Nasdaq gained 4.65% and the Dow 3.7% for the month. The S&P and […]

Published October 11, 2019

Longtime readers of this column may recall that I often write that the market climbs a wall of worry. This year has been no exception.

In spite of raucous headlines and recurring bad news, the U.S. equity market has increased 18.2 percent this year through September. European and Asian markets (the MSCI EAFE index) are up 13 percent. The U.S. real GDP annualized growth rate is at 2 percent. Consumer confidence has remained strong. Inflation is subdued.

But U.S. economic production is slowing, as is capital spending and investment. Indeed, on the first day of the new quarter, the U.S. manufacturing survey (the ISM index) came in at the lowest level since June 2009; it was the second consecutive month of contraction. While business leaders and economists blame tariff wars, President Trump took Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to the whipping post, calling the Federal Reserve Board – his appointees – “pathetic.”

Consumer spending is about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, so when the consumer is happy, the economy is strong. The U.S. consumer is important to the world economy too. Right now the consumer confidence level is strong, although weakening with the slate of bad news.

The slowdown in capital spending is becoming more apparent. The International Monetary Fund has been warning about slowing for many months. We see it in Europe and Asia, and it is coming to the U.S. The long-term bull market has people thinking about a slowdown. When enough people think the economy is slowing, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Adding to recession worries is the long-term trade conflict between the U.S. and China. The trade conflict has extended far beyond the […]

Published September 9, 2019

Investors suffered in August from sharp moves in stock prices, as our nation’s trade dispute with China and an inverted yield curve took stocks on a wild ride.

The S&P posted 11 moves of more than 1 percent in only 22 trading sessions for August. The declines included three sessions of at least 2.6 percent as well as the worst day of the year on Aug. 5.

The CBOE Volatility Index, considered to be the best gauge of fear on Wall Street, traded as high as 24.81 in August, before pulling back to around 18.

The increasing volatility was largely due to U.S.- China trade relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market.

August began with President Trump tweeting that he would place an additional 10 percent tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports starting Sept. 1. The announcement wiped out the gain of more than 1 percent on the day, and the S&P finished down 0.9 percent that day.

On Aug. 5, Trump accused China of currency manipulation, and the S&P dropped nearly 3 percent.

Trade tensions escalated when the Chinese announced new tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. products. Trump responded by ordering U.S. firms to leave China and announced higher tariffs.

Overall the market lost nearly 2 percent in August – its worst month since May, when it dropped 6.6 percent.

Energy and financial stocks were the worst performers. Technology stocks suffered too.

Don’t expect much improvement in September, which since 1950 has been the worst month for the market. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P suffers an average loss of 0.5 percent for the month.

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in September might […]

Published August 9, 2019

With the broad stock market up 17 percent year to date, the U.S. would seem to be on strong economic footing. Job growth is robust, profit growth is good enough, unemployment is low and consumer confidence is strong. So what is so wrong that the Federal Reserve was prompted to cut interest rates? Interest rate cuts are usually reserved for a weak economy.

There are numerous reasons. The president mounted a campaign to get the Fed to cut rates, which worked. The Fed was intimidated into cutting rates, because the financial markets came to expect a cut and actually demanded it. How can a market demand anything, let alone a rate cut? Well, when the financial markets bet that interest rates will go down and rate cut expectations go up, the Fed is in the crosshairs. The president’s demand clearly influenced the Fed.

Why did the president want a rate cut? The short answer is that it was good for his reelection prospects. The president has enjoyed the benefit of a strong economy, but with his favorability numbers still weak, he wanted some insurance.

Adding fuel to the fire, the president’s tariff wars are taking their toll. He promised that trade wars are “easy to win,” but they are proving to be anything but. Instead of working through existing trade agreements, the president opted to tear them up, bypass our trade allies and go head to head with China.

The president found the Chinese intransigent. That should not be a surprise to anyone with even the slightest knowledge of China. After all, China has a culture built over thousands of years as well as a long history […]

Published July 8, 2019 

U.S. equities markets streaked to new highs in the first half of 2019, in spite of a sharp downturn in May. The S&P index for the first half of the year jumped 18 percent. Before we become too smug, however, the Chinese Shanghai index and the Russian index were up over 20 percent; even emerging market Egypt, which I just visited, was up.

Best performing sectors in the U.S. were technology and consumer discretionary, with health care bringing up the rear. The prospects for the rest of the year are less sanguine.  The expansion is historically long, and the effects of the “tax cut” are wearing off.

Attention now shifts to Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. With Fed futures now forecasting a 100 percent chance of an interest rate cut, the only question appears to be whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. There is very little discussion, let alone support for no rate cut. The wisdom of a rate cut is questionable, given that the economy is very strong (though slowing). With 7 million jobs available and only 6 million people to fill them, it is difficult to see the economic need for a cut. It would be an “insurance cut,” because there are signs that the U.S. and global economies are flagging. So there is political pressure to “goose” the economy. With these rate cuts, the Fed would have fewer tools at its disposal to cut rates when they are actually needed.

The actual cause of the slowing global economy is tariffs. The on-again, off-again tariff war has created uncertainty. Investors hate uncertainty. Companies have postponed capital expenditures, because they are uncertain […]

Published May 13, 2019

The market began the year with its best start since 1998. After the jarring fourth quarter of 2018, the broad market powered its way to all-time highs. By the end of April, the market had gained 25 percent from its 2018 Q4 bear market low and 545 percent from the March 2009 financial crisis lows.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is running at about 3 percent – a significant improvement from the 2 percent of just a year ago.

April saw 265,000 new jobs added; that is a very strong number. Unemployment reached lows not seen since December 1969. There are a record 7.5 million job openings in the U.S.

Inflation remains low, but so do wage gains. The Federal Reserve, under pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates, declined to do so; nevertheless, the market priced in one rate cut for the rest of the year anyway.

The outlook for interest rates remains somewhat cloudy because of White House pressure, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will likely keep to the Fed’s established course, at least until the end of the year. That is, of course, unless Powell is forced out of his job. So far, efforts to restock the Fed with Trump supporters have failed, largely because of the lack of support for the potential replacements. The result is that interest rates will likely remain where they are until at least the end of 2019, even though a strong argument could be made to raise and “normalize” rates. Sooner or later the markets will need support from the Fed, so the Fed needs some “dry powder.”

In the face of many obstacles, such as China-U.S. […]

Published April 8, 2019

The last quarter of 2018 was a big disappointment to investors. Beginning in the autumn of the year, the market dropped 18.9%, reaching a bottom on Dec. 24. While not panicking, investors were certainly shaken.

The world economy, including the U.S., appeared to be slowing. To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve, sticking to its script, raised interest rates by a quarter point, extending worries about the economy. The market drop was sharp.

But, as often happens, the market surprises. The first quarter of 2019 was the best since 1998. The S&P index was up 13.1%, the Dow up 11.2% and the Nasdaq up 16.5%. Well, how do you explain such machinations?

In the fall of 2018 it became clear that the global economy was slowing. At the same time, the Federal Reserve believed it was time to raise interest rates. A bit of a back story: after a long time of historically low interest rates, some believed it was time to raise rates; the Fed subscribed to this idea. We have often written here of policy accidents. We have been worried about policy accidents. The Fed, looking at its tea leaves (and its point chart), decided that we needed to go on a rate-raising program. And raise it they did — nine times since December 2016, including three times in 2017 and four times in 2018.

But with the economy slowing, was December really a good time for another increase? President Trump, who considers himself an excellent forecaster, told the Fed not to raise rates. The Fed, which considers itself independent of political pressure, felt cornered, and to show its independence, resolved to raise rates.

They had […]

Published March 11, 2019

Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital burst into the United States when it bought well-established food companies Burger King in 2010 and H.J. Heinz in 2013. Its method of operation included cutting costs and executing mass layoffs. 3G attracted the attention of other hedge funds and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. Together, 3G and Buffett bought U.S. ketchup maker Heinz.

In 2015, with Buffett’s help, Heinz acquired and merged with Kraft Foods to create the world’s fifth-largest food company. It was a classic Buffett buy: an easy-to-understand company with iconic American brands, not unlike other long-term Buffett holdings, such as Coca-Cola and Dairy Queen. 3G and Kraft Heinz next attempted to buy Unilever for $143 billion, but that deal collapsed amid concerns about a cultural clash of the two entities.

On Feb. 22, Kraft Heinz disclosed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating the company’s “accounting policies, procedures and internal controls in procurement.” Kraft Heinz’s share price plunged 27 percent that day; the firm wrote down $15 billion in the value of its Kraft food lines, including Kraft macaroni and cheese, Oscar Mayer hot dogs and other waning brands. The firm also slashed its dividend. The write-down called into question 3G’s management style.

3G had underinvested in its brands to maximize current earnings at the expense of growth. Consumers have demonstrated a declining interest in its legacy food brands such as Velveeta cheese, Kool-Aid and Jell-O and a growing interest in natural and organic ingredients and products. Furthermore, consumers’ buying habits have changed, with private labels such as Costco’s trusted Kirkland Signature putting additional pressure on national brands to maintain position on grocery shelves.

3G’s slash-and-burn […]