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Economic Data Suggest Reasons For Optimism

William RutherfordAs I have stated before, the economy won’t hit the bottom until housing prices stabilize. Recent reports show that single-family home prices in the U.S. posted a slight 0.2-percent increase in the third quarter. This was the first quarterly gain in two years. The biggest increases were in the West, despite California, Arizona and Nevada being some of the most troubled states. Sales of new homes unexpectedly increased in October.

Sales of new single-family homes increased 6.2 percent. Sales of existing homes increased 3.7 percent. All of these reports augur well for the economy.

Also, job losses in November slowed to 11,000, the fewest since this recession began, and the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly, indicating that the economy is in a healing process. Unemployment remains stubbornly high, at around 10 percent, although most believe the real level is much higher. Nevertheless, payroll data reflect a notable improvement in the jobs market. Some think that firings have been too aggressive and that firms will have to start hiring in the next few months. There is a long way to go, however; nearly 8 million people have lost their jobs since the start of the recession.

Average hourly earnings rose a penny in November and the average workweek expanded by 0.2 hours.
Another report showed U.S. factory orders rose for the sixth time in seven months in October, posting a larger-than-expected gain of 0.6 percent. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew 2.8 percent, expanding for the first time in more than a year.

The economy still faces stiff headwinds, including higher taxes and more regulation. But perhaps the strongest is banks’ reluctance to lend. Banks have taken billions […]

March 18th, 2010|Categories: Daily Journal of Commerce|Tags: , , , |Comments Off on Economic Data Suggest Reasons For Optimism

Market Update

Yesterday the market just had its second largest up day ever; up 889 points. This rise came in spite of historical lows in the consumer confidence index (backward looking and volatile) and a nationwide drop in home prices of 16.6% (a real threat to the economy). The Fed is yet to weigh in with a rate cut which will almost certainly happen today. In the meantime, the Fed has increased the money supply by 25% in the last three weeks, a truly astonishing number.  The rally occurred toward the end of the day, with banks stocks getting a big lift in the last two minutes of trading. No doubt this was short covering and therefore not a sustainable rally.  Volume was very heavy (a good sign).

I do not know if this is the market bottom, although the October 13 bottom has now been tested twice and held both times.  I frankly expect at least one more test of the bottom, and of course any more BIG bad news could send the market lower.  (There is plenty of bad news in the market valuation already, news that a few weeks ago would have been considered big bad news, but has now become commonplace-the market has become inured to a degree). […]

October 29th, 2008|Categories: Comments from Bill|Tags: , , , , , |Comments Off on Market Update
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