global economy Archives • Rutherford Investment

Sell Stocks In May And Go Away? No Way!

Originally posted in the Daily Journal of Commerce, Portland OR

Published May 13, 2013

Many myths persist in the market. Some have a bit of truth, and that is enough to keep them around: “Don’t fight the Fed,” “Don’t fight the tape,” and “sell in May and go away.” Do we hang on to the latter because it rhymes, or because it works?

Of course, if one has a taxable account, one has to take into account capital gains taxes. The saying has some credence because historically stocks in May advance only 52 percent of the time, but – on average – 62 percent of the time in a month. Is this a year to sell in May? It doesn’t look like it.

After a strong start to the year, equities are up more than 18 percent year to date. For a time, stocks paused to let the economy catch up, but then resumed their upward trend. Earnings have been better than expected. About 70 percent of firms that have reported so far have beaten street estimates on income; only about 20 percent have failed to meet estimates.

However, revenue is another matter, as most firms have failed to meet their revenue targets and have signaled tough sledding ahead. Unemployment numbers remain persistently high, economic numbers remain weak, and gross domestic product growth is sluggish. The efforts of the Fed to jump-start the economy are having less and less impact. Sequestration has only begun to take effect.

Signs are mixed for the global economy. Europe remains troubled, but at the moment seems to be stabilizing. Headwinds persist, but the market is staying on its upward course with brief interruptions. […]

May 15th, 2013|Categories: Daily Journal of Commerce|Tags: capital gains taxes, global economy, money manager, sequestration, unemployment numbers|Comments Off

Pessimism Prevails As Global Economy Slows

Published August 10, 2012

Indications are strong that the global economy is slowing. In Europe, a continent sinking into recession, even Germany is showing signs of struggle. China is letting its currency devalue in an effort to lower the costs of its exports and set up a conflict with the U.S. The yuan’s lower value will lead to jobs being siphoned from other countries.

In the meantime, the U.S. economy has been affected by the global slowdown. The Federal Reserve has noted that economic activity has decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year. Consumer spending has slowed, which is worrisome because consumer spending represents about 70 percent of GDP. Normally resilient restaurant chains such as McDonalds, Starbucks and Chipotle Mexican Grill noted a drop in consumer traffic.

However, a few bright spots have appeared. Jobless claims are mildly positive, durable goods orders are slightly better than expected, and U.S. GDP rose by 1.5 percent in the second quarter – slightly more than the 1.3 percent expected.

The Federal Reserve, after meeting July 31 and Aug. 1, decided to continue its accommodative stance and provide additional support as needed. This was a mild approach to the problems at hand, and disappointing to the markets.

In light of the slowdown in Europe, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, pledged to protect the eurozone. He was joined by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and French President Francois Hollande. Their full-throated defense of the eurozone has been followed by little definitive action. The ECB in a recent meeting promised more meetings and initiatives, but little of substance. The markets were very disappointed with Draghi’s follow-up to his strong comments, […]

August 13th, 2012|Categories: Daily Journal of Commerce|Tags: economic activity, european markets, eurozone, global economy, global slowdown, world economy|Comments Off

Market Slumps Amid Economic Slowdown

Published June 11, 2012
A dramatic slowdown in Europe caused by credit issues there has brought the global economy to stall speed. European unemployment has reached all-time highs during the euro era. Manufacturing in the euro zone has fallen further. The Chinese economy has shown effects of a government-engineered slowdown. China has devalued the yuan, after allowing it to appreciate, in order to stimulate its economy.

All of these factors impact the U.S., where the rate of economic growth (gross domestic product) is less than 2 percent. U.S. factory output is near a 2½-year low, indicating the economy may be headed back toward recession.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its business barometer fell 3.5 points to 52.7 in May; it was the third straight monthly drop and the lowest reading since September 2009 (readings above 50 reflect economic expansion). The consensus estimate was for the barometer to continue at 56; so the current reading reflected a significant weakening.

At the same time, the ISM production index fell 7.1 points in May to a neutral reading of 50, also the lowest since September 2009. This index is compiled from surveys of purchasing managers in the Chicago region.

Also, the Labor Department showed that the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits rose by 10,000, to 383,000, for the week that ended May 26.

On June 1, the jobs report from the Labor Department showed that non farm payroll grew by a lackluster 69,000 last month. The rate of unemployment ticked up to 8.2 percent. All of the growth came from private industry: 82,000 jobs were added, but governments cut payrolls by 13,000.

Compounding the already weak report, […]

June 11th, 2012|Categories: Daily Journal of Commerce|Tags: business barometer, chinese economy, economic expansion, european unemployment, global economy, gross domestic product, recession|Comments Off

Economic Growth Slows; Bernanke Takes Congress To Task

Published September 9, 2011
After rolling through Labor Day, we continue to have high unemployment. It’s at 9.1 percent, and even President Obama says it will remain high through 2012. If so, Republicans are salivating over the opportunity to retire the president after only one term.

The pundits already are expecting Republicans to gain enough seats to take control of the Senate. Because of Democrats’ large victory in 2006, they have about twice as many seats to defend as Republicans. This gives the Republicans a big advantage going into the elections, so it is their election to lose.

As if high unemployment wasn’t enough bad news, housing starts have been moribund, the Philly Fed index fell to its lowest level since March 2009 – the recent market bottom. The consumer confidence index tumbled as well, to its lowest level since April 2009; the drop was far bigger than anticipated. As the global economy slows, and fears of the European debt crisis continue, worries over another
recession have put a damper on the markets. According to David Kelly, chief market strategist at JP
Morgan Funds, “… the market is an engine flooded with liquidity but without a spark.”

Economic growth is surely slowing not only in the U.S. but globally as well. Economic forecasters are
expecting GDP to grow from 1.5 percent to 2.9 percent next year. At 1.5 percent, we are not in a
recession; however, it will feel a lot like one. Employment really needs GDP growth of 2.5 percent to
reduce unemployment.

What will the market do between now and the end of 2011? As always, the pundits are divided. While
the case can be made for the S&P of […]

September 14th, 2011|Categories: Daily Journal of Commerce|Tags: consumer confidence index, debt crisis, global economy, jp morgan funds, recession|Comments Off

Bill Rutherford Quoted In Barron’s

Earnings Estimates Still Too Lofty

By JOHANNA BENNETT

WHILE WALL STREET’S OUTLOOK for corporate earnings has grown more bearish by the day, the estimates are still not grisly enough.

Analysts have sharply cut their third-quarter and full-year financial profit estimates for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 since the summer, finally giving up on the notion that profits will climb much in 2008.

A poll by Thomson Reuters shows that the Street expects earnings to fall 2.3% in the quarter ending Tuesday from a year earlier. For the entire year, profits are expected to remain flat, a big change from the 6.7% gain analysts had forecast in July.

But some are skeptical about even those modest expectations and expect earnings to be down this year by as much as 8%. And there’s little confidence that the 22% gains predicted in 2009 will materialize given the uncertain economy, falling oil prices and the turmoil plaguing financial markets. […]

October 1st, 2008|Categories: Bill Quoted|Tags: bank bailout, chief investment strategist, corporate america, corporate earnings, corporate profits, credit crisis, dow jones, dow jones industrial average, ed yardeni, fannie mae, financial markets, global economy, johanna bennett, lehman brothers, Rutherford Investment Management, stock market, william rutherford|Comments Off

Bill Rutherford Quoted In CNNMoney.com

Stocks rally on housing rescue

Dow surges 290 points as investors consider what the Fannie and Freddie bailout means for the broader economy.

by Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Stocks surged Monday, with the Dow gaining 290 points and the broader market also gaining as investors breathed a sigh of relief that the government has swooped in to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 290 points or 2.6%. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) index added 1.8%, paring its morning gains. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 0.6%, after climbing in the morning and then falling in the afternoon. […]

September 8th, 2008|Categories: Bill Quoted|Tags: bailout, credit markets, dow jones, dow jones industrial average, economic slowdown, fannie mae, global economy, jon burnham, lehman brothers, new york mercantile exchange, new york stock exchange, paulson, regional banks, Rutherford Investment Management, steven goldman, stock market, treasury secretary, william rutherford|Comments Off

Bill Rutherford Quoted By Reuters

US STOCKS-Techs rise, helped by falling oil price

by Walker Simon

* Oil price tumble helps techs, airlines, retailers
* Citigroup shares fall on CFO warning on write-downs
* Financials weigh on the broader market (Updates to midafternoon)

NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) – The Nasdaq rose on Thursday as top technology companies and other exporters benefited from tumbling oil prices, seen as easing strains on global economic growth.

But the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes were little changed, restrained by an extended slide in financial companies that was triggered by Citgroup’s warning of write-downs in subprime mortgages.

U.S. oil prices Clc1 fell $4.13 a barrel to $132.53 a barrel on the belief that demand will take a hit after China raised gasoline and diesel prices by 18 percent, its first domestic fuel hike in eight months.

Shares of big manufacturers, including Boeing Co (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and DuPont Co (DD.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), rose on the back of the lower oil prices. Retailers’ shares also benefited, with Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) up 0.7 percent. Both sectors were helped by the view that lower oil prices would take less of a toll on business and consumer spending. […]

June 19th, 2008|Categories: Bill Quoted|Tags: dow jones, dow jones industrial average, economy, global economic growth, global economy, market updates, nasdaq composite index, new york stock exchange, Rutherford Investment Management, subprime mortgages, william rutherford|Comments Off