Published December 5, 2025

Sometimes the best action is no action at all. November tested that principle as traders whipsawed themselves trying to react to every headline, while long-term investors watched the show from the sidelines.

Looking at the scoreboard you would think nothing happened. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1 percent, the Dow gained 0.3 percent, and the Nasdaq slipped 1.5 percent. But anyone who lived through the month knows these numbers are like saying a roller coaster is flat because it ends where it started. The difference between those who traded every twist and those who held steady? The patient investors ended the month right where they started, without the transaction costs and stress.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by another quarter point on Oct. 29, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.75-4 percent, with the committee split three ways. One member wanted a bigger cut; another wanted no cut at all. That kind of disagreement at the Fed is unusual, and it tells you something. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself admitted at the press conference that there were “strongly differing views” about December, warning that another cut isn’t “a foregone conclusion.”

Here’s where it gets interesting. During the month we were still dealing with the longest government shutdown in history: 43 days from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12. Because federal statisticians were furloughed, we simply didn’t get an October jobs report. The November inflation data has been pushed to December. The Fed will walk into its December meeting partially blind, and so will investors. In 30 years of watching markets, we have never seen anything quite like it.

Yet beneath this uncertainty, corporate America kept churning […]

Published November 7, 2025

Never mind that the government couldn’t tell us whether we had jobs or inflation. The stock market powered straight through October’s data fog. The S&P 500 rose 2.3 percent for the month, the Nasdaq gained 4.7 percent, and the Dow added 2.5 percent, extending multi-month winning streaks for all three indices. Here’s the kicker: they did it while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics posted a notice saying updates had stopped. Meanwhile, Treasury desks dusted off a rarely used TIPS fallback procedure in case the Consumer Price Index couldn’t be published on time — a reminder that markets sometimes must fly by instruments that have not been calibrated in years.

With the federal government shut down since Oct. 1, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the BLS and the Census Bureau curtailed most releases, leaving investors to triangulate the economy with private indicators and stale prints. The October jobs report that normally drops the first Friday of the month could not be found. The CPI release got pushed back a week, and there were genuine concerns it might not be published at all if the shutdown persisted. For the first time in memory, the Federal Reserve had to make a rate decision essentially flying blind.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4 percent on Oct. 29, although Chair Jerome Powell made it crystal clear that another cut in December “isn’t a foregone conclusion; far from it.” As he said during the press conference: “What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down.” The vote itself tells you something about […]

Published October 10, 2025

Most years, the market keeps half an eye on the calendar. Not in 2025. This year, the market tossed the playbook out the window. “Sell in May and go away” arrived right on cue – and was promptly shown the door as May turned into a barn burner, with the S&P up over 6 percent. Summer didn’t lag either. That brings us to September, which historically is the market’s worst month. Instead of the usual pothole, it was a step higher: the S&P 500 rose 3.5 percent, the Nasdaq jumped 5.6 percent, and the Dow gained 1.9 percent – their best Septembers in 15 years.

The turning point came Sept. 17, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered what the market wanted: a quarter-point rate cut to a range of 4 to 4.25 percent. Think of the Fed as the economy’s thermostat – it nudged the temperature up a notch, because growth has cooled a bit, and the job market isn’t as hot as it was. Lowering rates helps keep the expansion going without letting inflation heat up again. Powell’s message was clear: We’re not panicking, but we’re paying attention. As he put it, “downside risks to employment have risen.”

What Powell didn’t say – but the market heard loud and clear – was that this Fed won’t let the economy stumble into recession on its watch. Not with unemployment edging up to 4.3 percent. Not with job growth slowing to a crawl. The market loves nothing more than a Fed that has its back. Importantly, the Fed didn’t promise a quick sprint to cheaper money. It signaled a careful, step-by-step approach that depends […]

Published September 5, 2025

August marched forward with a steady drumbeat of new highs, which was uncharacteristic for the month historically, and therefore a surprise to many investors. The S&P 500 rose 1.9 percent for the month, which included setting fresh records in the final stretch, including the S&P’s 20th record close of the year on Aug. 28. The Dow added 3.2 percent in August, and the Nasdaq gained 1.6 percent. The Nasdaq’s poorer performance was mostly weighed down by profit-taking in the semiconductor sector, after Nvidia’s blowout quarter of AI semiconductor chip sales failed to meet the market’s increasingly lofty expectations. Sometimes good news just isn’t good enough when stocks are priced for perfection.

Speaking of perfection, gold decided to join the party in earnest. The “barbarous relic,” as renowned economist John Maynard Keynes called it, touched $3,533 per ounce on Sept. 2, making fresh all-time highs as investors sought refuge from an increasingly uncertain world. When the 30-year Treasury bond flirts with 5 percent (as it did in early September) and questions swirl about central bank independence, even traditionalists start eyeing alternatives. Gold’s 42 percent year-to-date surge tells you everything you need to know about diminishing confidence in paper currencies, including in the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.

Never mind that gold pays no dividend, costs money to store, and has historically been a lousy investment over long periods. In uncertain times like these, it’s sometimes about return of capital rather than return on capital. When investors pay up for ballast during an equity rally, one should pay attention.

Under the surface, market breadth improved. Small caps finally showed some spark, with the Russell 2000 up […]

Published August 8, 2025

Remember musical chairs? Everyone circles nervously as the music plays, but when it stops, someone is inevitably left without a chair. July’s market felt similar — investors circled cautiously, unsure when the music might stop, and wondered if they would have a seat when it did.

July confounded investors with conflicting signals. Yet the S&P 500 rose 2.17 percent for the month, pushing its year-to-date return to 7.78 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a modest gain of 0.08 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced steadily. In July, the S&P 500 managed its 14th record close for the year, highlighting investors’ continued optimism in the economy and their confidence that the Fed would eventually cut rates.

After the relentless climb in stock prices throughout July, on the first day of August, employment data sent a clear warning signal, and the market retreated over 3 percent from its recent highs. That day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 73,000 in July. The agency also significantly revised earlier figures downward; June’s payroll number was adjusted sharply downward from 147,000, while May’s total plummeted by 125,000 to just 19,000. In addition, the unemployment rate edged slightly upward from 4.1 to 4.2 percent, average weeks unemployed increased modestly to 24.1 — the highest level since April 2022 — and the number of long-term unemployed individuals rose to 1.82 million.

However, ADP’s subsequent employment report struck a more optimistic tone, stating that its hiring and pay data continue to be broadly indicative of a healthy economy, with strong job gains in leisure, financial, and construction sectors. Job losses were in […]

Published July 11, 2025

June delivered a pleasant surprise for investors who were bracing for the traditional summer doldrums. Instead of “selling in May and going away,” those who stayed invested were handsomely rewarded. The S&P 500 gained a robust 4.96 percent in June, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 6.6 percent, and even the staid Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 4.32 percent. The S&P 500 posted gains on 13 of its 20 trading days, and nine of the 11 sectors finished higher.

Never mind that we started the year with tariff tantrums and trade wars; the second quarter of 2025 was a master class for investors in why to look beyond the headlines. Liberation Day hit early in the quarter, sending markets into a tailspin. The S&P 500 plunged 15 percent from its high point. Panic selling reached fever pitch. Billions fled to money markets. The financial press declared the bull market dead. Yet by quarter’s end, stocks posted the best quarterly close since 2023, with the S&P up over 10 percent. From those April lows to June’s close, the index surged 24 percent, all within a single quarter.

Here is what the headline writers missed during this chaotic time: Corporate earnings kept growing, particularly in technology. Announced tariffs were postponed or reduced. The recession everyone predicted for Q2 did not arrive. And slowly, methodically, all that sidelined cash started creeping back into equities. As Warren Buffett likes to say, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Nothing attracts money like a rising market.

In June, 147,000 jobs were added, right in line with recent averages but below the 250,000 needed to absorb new […]

Published June 6, 2025

May turned out to be one of those months that reminded investors why the market hates uncertainty — and then proceeds to rally anyway. The S&P 500 surged 6.2 percent, the Nasdaq climbed 9.6 percent, and even the Dow managed a respectable 3.9 percent gain. Between April 8 and May 5, the size of the gain (17 percent) in the S&P 500 has occurred in such a short period only six times in the past 75 years, according to Birinyi Associates. The entire month was the best May performance for equities since 1990.

The month’s defining moment came on May 29, when a federal trade court struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Markets rallied. Then, within hours, an appeals court put the ruling on hold. The tariffs were back. So was the confusion. Companies that had spent months adjusting to the new trade rules were back to square one.

This kind of policy reversal would have been extraordinary a generation ago. Now it is becoming routine. Companies are spending more time with trade lawyers than with their customers. The regulatory burden has become so complex that businesses are shifting resources away from innovation and growth just to navigate the compliance maze.

Yet somehow, consumers kept spending. Discretionary purchases held steady in May, suggesting that Americans are either adapting to the policy chaos or accelerating their purchases ahead of tariffs. Manufacturing orders showed artificial strength as companies built inventories, not because demand was growing, but because they feared higher import costs down the road. Employment numbers remained strong, although data emerging in early June indicates there is some softening.

At the end of the month, Jamie Dimon […]

Published May 9, 2025

April 2025 was a month that reminds us why investing requires a strong stomach. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2 set off the worst four-day stock market slide since the 2008 financial crisis. Then, in a dramatic reversal on April 9, we saw the biggest single-day point gains in history for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, as the tariff implementation date received a 90-day reprieve, largely to forestall an imminent meltdown in the U.S. Treasury market.

By May 2, markets had strung together nine consecutive winning days – the longest streak since 2004. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 had recovered their tariff-induced Liberation Day losses. Yet a significant percentage of stocks remain 20 percent below their 52-week highs.

On April 21, the dollar hit its lowest level since March 2022 due to concerns about Trump removing Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. With this backdrop, foreign investors continued the sale of U.S. assets that Liberation Day had precipitated.

For decades, the world has been saving and the U.S. spending, with those savings funding our deficits in the form of purchases of U.S. Treasurys. The resulting demand for our bonds results in low borrowing rates for the Treasury. The announcement of draconian tariffs on April 2 signaled a shift by the U.S. to a multipolar world that would make U.S. investments less attractive, resulting in a massive global repositioning to reduce exposure to U.S. assets. Additionally, oil prices registered a dramatic decline of 15 percent in April, as measured by Brent crude, reflecting reduced global demand, fears of recession and increased supply from Russia and Saudi […]

Published April 11, 2025

After a strong start to the year, equity markets hit major turbulence in March, mirroring the unexpected upsets in the annual college basketball tournaments known as “March Madness.” New trade policies introduced by the Trump administration rattled investors. The S&P 500 fell 6 percent, the Nasdaq dropped 8.5 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 4.3 percent for the month. Then the S&P 500, a broad market measure, dropped another 11 percent in the first week and a half of April. On April 2, “Liberation Day,” Trump announced tariffs on our primary trading partners, and the draconian measures were speedily matched in angry retaliation.

The market downturn was in response to the administration’s announcement of these sweeping new tariffs under the banner of “reciprocity.” The explanation was that they were designed to narrow America’s trade deficits with various trading partners, irrespective of whether those countries were charging high import tariffs. Markets, which dislike uncertainty, reacted predictably by repricing stocks lower, thereby reducing risk in an environment where global trade relationships are being rewritten.

Consider the humble coffee maker. When a 25 percent tariff hits imported kitchen appliances, the $80 wholesale cost to your local retailer suddenly jumps to $100. The retail cost then increases from $120 to perhaps $134. But the story doesn’t end there.

The coffee maker company, facing declining sales, cuts costs to survive. It delays developing the new model and cancels the expansion of its distribution center, putting 50 new jobs on hold indefinitely. Meanwhile, companies that make complementary products – specialty coffee, filters, cleaning supplies – see their sales decline. Even the trucking companies that transport these goods see a […]

Published March 7, 2025

February, historically a challenging month for investors, lived up to its reputation this year. After a strong start in January fueled by AI enthusiasm and recovery hopes, equity markets retreated as consumer confidence deteriorated with mounting policy uncertainties.

The S&P 500 finished February down 1.4 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 4 percent – its worst monthly performance since April 2024. This pullback came despite economic fundamentals that, on the surface, still appear relatively stable.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2024, continuing the moderate but steady growth that has characterized the post-pandemic recovery. The unemployment rate held at 4 percent, essentially full employment, and job creation continued at a modest pace. Inflation, while still above the Federal Reserve’s target, showed signs of stabilizing, giving policymakers encouragement to consider rate reductions later this year.

As the policies of the new administration in Washington, D.C., began to take concrete shape, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index in February recorded its steepest drop – 6.7 percent – in over three years. This decline wasn’t limited to future expectations – confidence in present economic conditions also weakened.

This sentiment shift manifested in retail performance, with Walmart reporting its guidance for the remainder of the year below expectations, citing weakness in discretionary spending. Higher prices continue to strain household budgets. While wages have risen, they haven’t kept pace with the increased costs of necessities. The rapid rise in egg prices due to the bird flu epidemic was a headline grabber in this regard. For investors, the decline in consumer optimism signals potential trouble for […]