Published August 7, 2020

The U.S. economy contracted at a record rate last quarter. A slowing job market became another sign of a slowing economy. A summer surge in virus infections added to worries.

The Commerce Department said that the U.S. gross domestic product declined at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 32.9 percent annual rate. It was the steepest drop in 70 years of record-keeping. The U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending, which represents about 70 percent of the U.S. economy. But if one can’t go to a restaurant or the hair salon, spending will decline. Spending on nondurable goods such as clothing and groceries fell by 15.95 percent. At the same time, spending on durable goods fell only by 1.4 percent. Plenty of stimulus money was not spent. The personal savings rate swelled, as worries over the virus and the economy caused people to retain cash.

The unemployment rate increased, with the number of people receiving unemployment benefits rising to 17 million in the week ending July 18.

While the economy slowed, the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq stock market traded at its highs, owing to stimulus from the government and the increase in money supply from the Federal Reserve. Without the stimulus, the economic decline would have been worse. However, some of the stimulus is running out.

Because of job losses, housing will become an issue as people are no longer able to afford their rent or mortgages. Commercial and retail real estate, which historically provided reliable cash flow and income, is also under pressure due to the bankruptcies of many well-known companies and the reconfiguration of how and where people work.

The time of late August and early September normally […]

Published July 10, 2020

With the first half of the year in the record books, we can reflect back. The S&P began the year at 3,231 and climbed to 3,386 on Feb. 19, when it took a sharp drop ending at 2,237 on March 23. Then the market began a seemingly V-shaped recovery and bounced up to the current level of 3,100 on June 30.

The market was aided by very supportive actions from the government. The Federal Reserve announced that it would do whatever it takes to keep the economy strong. The administration offered strong fiscal support through stimulus packages. The virus appeared to take a breather, which gave the market optimism.

As the stimulus packages began to wear out and the virus began to resurge, only the Federal Reserve was able to continue its support for the market. The Fed has almost unlimited ability to support the market through monetary policy, including even buying assets.

The administration has an appetite for disbursing money through various methods, but that could have a practical and political limit. The virus seems to be in charge. Hope for a vaccine stimulates the market, but fears of a new virus and resurgence of the current virus raise market concerns. It is too early to tell who or what wins this contest. Individuals have the ability to influence the outcome by employing safe health practices, but will they oblige?

In the meantime, the market seems to have disconnected from reality, with stocks surging and soaring to ever higher levels. Every new hope for a vaccine elevates stock prices.

Investors should practice caution, even as they fear missing out on the uptick in the market. A barbell approach may be in order: […]

Published June 5, 2020

Financial results for the first quarter of 2020 have been reported by most members of the S&P 500, showing corporate earnings down 11.2 percent year on year, even though revenues were up 1.9 percent. Due to the COVID-19 virus, S&P earnings for the full year 2020 are expected to be down 23 percent or more. Growth is expected to resume next year, largely because of the easy comparisons with this year.

In the meantime, unemployment remains very high and rising. The Labor Department’s monthly employment report for April shows the jobless rate soared to 14.7 percent – the highest level since the Great Depression. The U.S. has lost 20.5 million jobs amid the coronavirus pandemic. Almost all the job growth achieved during the 11-year recovery from the Great Recession has now been lost in one month.

On June 5 (after this column was written), the Labor Department was to have released May’s employment report, and expectations were for 9 million additional people to have lost their jobs. This would increase the unemployment rate to slightly more than 20 percent. The Labor Department says the real unemployment rate is likely higher, because about 7.5 million workers should have been classified as “unemployed on temporary layoff,” instead of employed but not at work.

The stock market has gone up even as the economy has weakened and riots in many cities have destroyed businesses already teetering from the impacts of virus-related shutdowns. The market seems to have disconnected from the economy and the social unrest, largely because the White House and Federal Reserve continue to provide monetary stimulation.

European economies burdened with troubled industries, like car manufacturing, energy and […]

Published May 8, 2020

At the beginning of this year, the U.S. stock market showed robust strength. Negative headlines were not enough to keep the market from rising; it continued its record-setting bull market run.

Then, just like that, it was over. The bull market did not end because of economic issues. This bull market ended because of a virus, and the growing realization of its impact on the global economy. The end of the market run was sudden and ferocious. Veteran investors were shocked and surprised. Warren Buffett observed that in all his years of investing, he had never seen anything like it.

Since the market is usually a forecaster of the economy, it appeared that the market was forecasting an event as big as the Great Depression, with unemployment at levels unseen at any time previously. Liz Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab, said it was the Great Depression, the crash of 1987 and the 9-11 attacks all rolled into one.

Then on March 23, the U.S. equity market struck its low point for the year thus far. Since March 23, the market has been on a tear. First dismissed as a bear market rally, the market rose by more than 23 percent, qualifying it as a new bull market. The rise erased one half of the market drop since late February. The lessons: Do not give up on the American economy. Stay invested. Do not try to time the market.

Global efforts by central banks in the U.S. and worldwide to buoy the system led to the sudden and steep rise. Citibank estimates that central banks this year will buy $5 trillion in bonds, which is […]

Published April 10, 2020

From its all-time high on Feb. 12, the S&P 500 hit a bottom of 2,237 on March 23. But will it still go lower this year? After the longest bull market in stock market history, the coronavirus dealt a body blow to the market. The market drop was the most precipitous in history. History tells us that the market will recover, but over what time period? Will it be a V-shaped or U-shaped or L-shaped recovery?

Since 1929, the S&P has suffered 14 bear markets, defined as peak-to-trough losses of 20 percent or more. That being said, bear markets result in declines of 39 percent on average, and last about 19 months. If this one feels particularly bad, it’s because it is. We’ve had a decline almost on a par with a typical full bear market cycle in just about three weeks.

Over the past 25 years, there have been seven virus-related market episodes. While there were market dislocations during these episodes, none of the infections were as contagious as the current coronavirus. While the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa was potentially more problematic, it was contained quite quickly and a wider contagion was avoided. With this history as background, it’s easy to see why governments globally were perhaps lulled into a state of relative complacency.

The litany of records broken is long, but that is history. Central banks around the world have reacted to the challenge. The U.S. and other governments have launched massive stimulus packages. Help is on the way, but will that help cause more problems?

The massive stimulus packages will be inflationary. Money will become less valuable and things more dear. That […]

Published March 6, 2020

This month I have received more than the usual amount of correspondence asking where my column is. It is flattering to know that people care, but pity the poor columnist in a market of volatility and government by tweet. Sometimes circumstances change so rapidly, I can’t keep up with the changes.  But should you care about the volatility anyway?

Investors are people, and people are often impatient. No one likes to wait in line or wait longer than necessary for something – especially today, when so much is just a click or two away.

This impatience also manifests itself in the financial markets. When stocks slip, for example, some investors grow uneasy. Their impulse is to sell, get out, and perhaps get back in later. If they give in to that impulse, they may pay a steep price.

Across 30 years through Dec. 31, 2018, the Standard & Poor’s 500 posted an average annual return of 10 percent. During the same period, the average mutual fund stock investor realized a yearly return of just 4.1 percent. Why the difference? It could partly stem from impatience.

It’s important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. The return and principal value of stocks will fluctuate over time, as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Investors can worry too much. In the long run, an investor who glances at a portfolio once per quarter may end up making more progress toward his or her goals than one who anxiously pores over financial websites each day.

Too many investors make quick, emotional moves when the market dips. Logic may […]

Published February 7, 2020

“It’s very hard to say what is affecting financial markets with any precision or confidence.” – Jerome Powell, U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman.

Longtime readers of this column will recall that I am fond of quoting Will Rogers, who had rare sagacity. He once said “it is very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Now, our Federal Reserve chairman agrees with him.

As we started the year, rosy optimism prevailed. The equity markets were up. Strength in the markets begat more strength, and it looked like we were off to a good start for the year. A good start to the year usually means a good year; optimism prevailed. The Federal Reserve met and pronounced the economy solid. The Fed declined to move rates, because a cut wasn’t needed, and an increase was not warranted. President Trump did not agree: The Fed should get smart and cut rates, he opined, arguing that high interest rates were putting the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage. (Interest rates are at historically low levels.) The president yearned for the negative interest rates of Europe, but they weren’t forthcoming.

Unemployment remained low. Consumer confidence stayed strong, even as consumer stocks, as measured by their ETF, were weak. U.S. growth in domestic product was the slowest since 2016. The president blamed the Federal Reserve, but not the trade war.

As always, there was plenty to worry about. The markets were overextended, and a correction was due. Still, the equity market marched ahead; until it didn’t. News of a new virus spreading globally hit, and markets tumbled. Since it is hard to make predictions about the future, it is unknown at this […]

Published January 10, 2020

Much has been written about the classic financial mistakes that plague investors, family businesses, corporations and charities. Similar financial missteps also plague retirees. The beginning of a new decade is a good time to review these.

Calling them “mistakes” may be a bit harsh, because not all of them represent errors in judgment. Yet whether they result from ignorance or fate, we need to be aware of them as we plan for and enter retirement.

Leaving work too early

Adding years of earnings and savings can add significantly to the investment portfolio one will rely on in retirement. Also, since Social Security benefits rise about 8 percent for every year one delays receiving them, waiting a few years to apply for benefits can provide greater retirement income. Filing for monthly benefits before reaching Social Security’s Full Retirement Age (FRA) can mean comparatively smaller monthly payments. If possible, delay claiming Social Security until one must file for it, and see significantly more monthly benefits.

Underestimating medical bills

According to the latest estimate from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the average retiree will need at least $4,300 per year to pay for future health care costs. Medicare will not pay for everything. That $4,300 represents after-tax, out-of-pocket costs and accounts for dental, vision and long-term care.

Taking potential for longevity too lightly

Actuaries at the Social Security Administration project that around a third of today’s 65-year-olds will live to age 90, with about one in seven living 95 years or longer. The prospect of a retirement being 20-30 years or longer is not unreasonable, yet there is still a lingering cultural assumption that our retirements might duplicate the sometimes […]

Published December 6, 2019

In this column, you have often heard me refer to the market climbing a wall of worry.

Surely, at this time, the market has a lot to worry about.  Is that the reason the equity markets have climbed 20-30 percent year-to-date?

The slowing global economy, trade war with China, Brexit missteps, Hong Kong demonstrations and interest rates inverting have all been headline news and negatives for the U.S. economy and the stock market.

“Trade wars are good and easy to win,” opined President Trump, as he began the current dispute with China. With each passing month, we are told we are winning the trade dispute and that an agreement is at hand –  even inches away, according to the White House – yet the dispute continues and in some cases worsens.

If you can count the outcome of the demonstrations in Hong Kong as a sign of winning against China’s control, then we should be optimistic.  But political unrest in Hong Kong is threatening global stability.

Brexit also threatens disruption of the global economy, with the only solution offered being another general election in Britain; no consolation there.

The U.S. interest rate yield curve briefly inverted, so the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates again. Was that a solution or just another problem?  Wherever one looks there is worry, and yet the U.S. equity market appeared strong with the S&P up 25.3% from Jan. 1, 2019, through Dec. 1, 2019.  The Nasdaq was up 30.6% and the Dow Jones Industrials up 20.3% during the same time period.

The S&P added 3.4% for the month of November, while the Nasdaq gained 4.65% and the Dow 3.7% for the month. The S&P and […]

Published October 11, 2019

Longtime readers of this column may recall that I often write that the market climbs a wall of worry. This year has been no exception.

In spite of raucous headlines and recurring bad news, the U.S. equity market has increased 18.2 percent this year through September. European and Asian markets (the MSCI EAFE index) are up 13 percent. The U.S. real GDP annualized growth rate is at 2 percent. Consumer confidence has remained strong. Inflation is subdued.

But U.S. economic production is slowing, as is capital spending and investment. Indeed, on the first day of the new quarter, the U.S. manufacturing survey (the ISM index) came in at the lowest level since June 2009; it was the second consecutive month of contraction. While business leaders and economists blame tariff wars, President Trump took Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to the whipping post, calling the Federal Reserve Board – his appointees – “pathetic.”

Consumer spending is about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, so when the consumer is happy, the economy is strong. The U.S. consumer is important to the world economy too. Right now the consumer confidence level is strong, although weakening with the slate of bad news.

The slowdown in capital spending is becoming more apparent. The International Monetary Fund has been warning about slowing for many months. We see it in Europe and Asia, and it is coming to the U.S. The long-term bull market has people thinking about a slowdown. When enough people think the economy is slowing, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Adding to recession worries is the long-term trade conflict between the U.S. and China. The trade conflict has extended far beyond the […]